Give us some updates. Try all the different ones above, and post a render of it. I'm curious to see what worked and what didn't visually.
I was thinking a mia x will work also, with some displacement of the geometry for the front part, and another exact same material for beyond the fence except with noise. But I could be Waaaaaaay off. :-)
However, I'm curious if it will work using a colored shader (black gray in your case), and make it transparent enough to see through. I see some signs on the bottom, and muck. I'm not sure if that's significant to you.
I like Dushyant's Second picture - the one with the Ocean shader as a bump.
I don't know what your actual environment is, but if it going to look like the reference, see if you can "calm" the waters a little bit. The first one - blinn with noise bump - water is too rough, but perfect for beyond the fence. The third one with just the ocean shader looks too pattern-like.
The reference looks like its in a quiet little corner of a lake, abandoned, calmness of the water with the chaotic mess - I like it a lot!!
Murambi's version is not bad, but I feel it's a little too rough.
Good luck! It's not going to happen overnight...working with shaders forces you to just push it just a little bit more.
I look forward to your completed project or progress....I just really love love the reference...I don't know why.
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